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Bitcoin consultants are buzzing as President-elect Donald Trump lashed out towards present Federal Reserve coverage, calling rates of interest “far too high” regardless of persistent inflationary pressures. “We are inheriting a difficult situation from the outgoing administration,” Trump mentioned at his Mar-a-Lago membership, including that officers appear to be “trying everything they can to make it more difficult” for his incoming group.
The blunt remarks, coming fewer than two weeks earlier than Trump’s inauguration, have stoked anticipation of a attainable shift in US financial coverage—and raised hypothesis a couple of increase for Bitcoin and different danger property within the new yr.
The 2017 Trump Playbook: Dollar “Too Strong”, Bitcoin Up?
Although the financial and geopolitical panorama has modified since Trump’s first time period, some market watchers see parallels to his 2017 rhetoric. Back then, he lambasted a US greenback that he deemed “too strong,” a stance that preceded a notable decline within the forex. The US Dollar Index (DXY) peaked close to 104 in early January 2017 however started a downward pattern that prolonged into early 2018, bottoming out round 98.
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This sharp transfer within the greenback coincided with a broader risk-on atmosphere, fueling rallies in equities in addition to the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), drew a direct comparability on X.
“The last time Trump said something was ‘too high,’ it was the dollar – back in January 2017, just days before his inauguration,” Bittel said and recounted: “Here’s what he said: ‘Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.”
Notably, final yr, Trump additionally referred to as current energy a “tremendous burden on US businesses.” Bittel additional argued: “Trump understands the impact of a strong dollar – and the same logic applies to high interest rates. They suppress exports, hurt corporate earnings, and slow economic growth.”
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Speaking on the influence on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, Bittel concluded: “What happened next? Well, the dollar began a significant decline, setting the stage for one of the most pivotal macro moves we’ve seen in years – triggering a melt-up in risk assets. Déjà vu? I think so. Let’s see how it plays out.”
Bittel isn’t the one skilled speculating that the DXY might have already got peaked, mirroring its 2017 topping sample. Steve Donzé, Deputy CIO for Multi Asset at Pictet Asset Management Japan, shared a extensively mentioned chart on X, remarking “On time. Ready for pushback,” whereas overlaying current DXY actions with the forex’s trajectory in early 2017. The chart suggests an analogous sample that might foreshadow renewed greenback weak spot within the coming weeks.
In a separate submit, monetary analyst Silver Surfer (@SilverSurfer_23) pointed to an uncanny timing overlap: “DXY topped on January 3rd, 2017—18 days before Trump’s Inauguration. DXY looks to have topped on January 2nd, 2025—19 days before Trump’s Inauguration.” He characterised the parallel as “crazy history repeating,” explaining that he sees a correlation between the trail of the DXY earlier than each inaugurations.
Such analogies are fueling hypothesis {that a} repeat greenback droop might usher in an atmosphere favoring danger property. Should the greenback certainly enter a brand new downtrend—very similar to in 2017–2018—Bitcoin might experience a wave of renewed liquidity and speculative urge for food.
At press time, BTC traded at $94,950.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com