In the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, on-line misinformation claiming the election was rigged in his favor has proliferated — together with theories about lacking votes and voting machine dysfunction.
As was the case with election denialism following the 2020 election, these conspiracy theories about election fraud are false. According to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the federal physique that oversees dangers to election techniques, there haven’t been indicators of meddling or hacks on machines affecting the race end result.
“Importantly, we have no evidence of any malicious activity that had a material impact on the security or integrity of our election infrastructure,” CISA director Jen Easterly stated in a press release.
While it’s true that the present complete vote depend is lower than it was in 2020, that’s not as a result of votes are lacking —a lot of ballots are nonetheless being tabulated and the ultimate depend isn’t but obtainable.
It’s value noting there’s an enormous distinction between 2020 and the misinformation being unfold this time round. During the final cycle, Trump was one of many chief individuals perpetuating lies about the election being stolen and falsehoods about fraud. Powerful voices within the GOP — together with senators and House members — echoed the claims.
This cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris has already conceded the election, and Democratic leaders, together with President Joe Biden, have emphasised the necessity for a peaceable switch of energy. The misinformation this week as a substitute seems to be coming from on-line observers — a lot of them small accounts — upset within the end result of the election or desperate to revive claims of election denialism from 2020.
There’s no proof to again up the “missing ballots” conspiracy principle
One conspiracy principle that’s unfold on-line is that there are votes lacking this cycle as a result of the depend up to now is decrease than what it was in 2020. In actuality, that’s as a result of votes are nonetheless being counted — significantly in populous states, like California, that rely closely on mail-in ballots.
Observers on each side of the aisle have floated this principle. Those sympathetic with Democrats argue that it’s proof that Trump cheated and that votes are lacking from the ultimate depend. Those sympathetic with Republicans say it’s extra proof that one thing went awry in 2020 and that further votes have been counted that 12 months.
Neither is right, specialists emphasize.
“Those are both lies. Those are both complete misinterpretations of the data,” David Becker, the founder and government director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, a nonpartisan nonprofit that works on election administration, instructed Vox.
Claim: There have been 20 million fewer votes forged in 2024 than in 2020.
Reality: The remaining depend for this election continues to be not but in and will take weeks. That’s as a result of a lot of states together with California, Nevada, and Arizona are persevering with to course of mail-in ballots. As a end result, evaluating the present vote totals with these in 2020 isn’t an correct method.
“Thanks to slow counting of ballots mostly out west, there are still millions of votes to be added to the ultimate totals,” UCLA election regulation professor Rick Hasen instructed Vox. “When all is said and done, turnout will likely be on par with turnout in the last election.”
The altering vote totals is proof of this dynamic. As Gabriel Sterling, the chief working officer of the Georgia secretary of state workplace, famous on Friday, the distinction in vote totals between 2024 and 2020 has already modified: While there was a distinction of 20 million votes on Wednesday, it went down to fifteen million votes on Thursday as extra ballots have been counted.
As of early Friday afternoon, an estimated 91.8 p.c of votes had been counted, based on the New York Times. That included a complete of 144.7 million votes, together with 69.2 million for Harris and 73.5 million for Trump.
Given that estimate, there must be a complete of roughly 157.6 million complete votes forged, as soon as the total depend is in.
That determine is much like the 2020 remaining vote complete. When 100% of votes have been counted in 2020, 155.5 million complete votes have been forged together with 81.2 million for Biden and 74.2 million for Trump.
A conspiracy principle about swing states is fake, too
Another declare that’s emerged facilities on how Harris misplaced key swing states together with Michigan and Wisconsin — however Democrats gained different seats, together with Senate seats in these locations. Because some voters in these states seem to have cut up their tickets, that’s prompted some on-line observers to push theories that there’s one thing amiss with voting machines or different elements of the election course of.
Claim: Democrats dropping the presidency however profitable different seats in swing states is proof there’s one thing awry.
Reality: Even although they’ve grow to be much less frequent over time, split-ticket voters nonetheless exist. Recall that in 2020, Biden gained most of Maine’s electoral votes whereas Republican Sen. Susan Collins gained the state. That 12 months, a large proportion of the state backed each Biden and Collins.
This cycle, that very same dynamic was obvious with voters electing Democrats Tammy Baldwin and Elissa Slotkin to the Senate in Wisconsin and Michigan, respectively, and Trump to the presidency.
“There were Trump-Stein voters in North Carolina, there were Trump-Slotkin voters in Michigan, there were Trump-Gallego voters in Arizona,” Becker says. There’s additionally proof {that a} phase of voters in locations like Wisconsin could have supported Trump however skipped the Senate query altogether.
Historically, split-ticket voters have voted on this approach as a result of they see supporting totally different events as an effort at moderation or placing checks on every social gathering. In some circumstances, points with candidate high quality may additionally flip voters away: In North Carolina, for instance, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein doubtless benefited as a result of his opponent, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, was below hearth for making inflammatory statements.
The presence of voters who both cut up their ticket or didn’t vote in down poll races just isn’t, nevertheless, an indication of fraud.
There are layers of election safety
Both Becker and Hasen observe that post-election audits can be performed to find out if there have been any discrepancies in vote counts, or in election machine performance. In these audits, officers do a hand depend of a choice of paper ballots to make sure that the outcomes being reported by the machines are correct. Those audits ought to safeguard towards any potential errors in machines — although, once more, there hasn’t been any proof that such points affected the end result.
Broadly, although, each specialists emphasize that the US election system is reliable and that the method went easily this 12 months.
“The election was well run,” Hasen confused.