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As the soccer season will get underway each season, two issues are sure: There shall be some headline-grabbing concussions, and we’ll hear the National Football League (NFL) inform us that participant well being and security stay a high precedence.
The distinction between appearances and that declare is hanging. Few followers may neglect Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stumbling on the discipline after an enormous hit, being cleared to play after which sustaining one other scary harm a couple of days later. The scene of a wobbly participant being escorted off the discipline after a head affect is all too acquainted on highschool fields, in faculty stadiums, and, after all, in the NFL. Yet we hear claims that the sport has gotten safer, as the NFL repeatedly studies progress in the struggle in opposition to concussions, citing new guidelines and gear, better consciousness, enhancements in its concussion protocol, and continued analysis into the challenge.
Can we be assured that each one of those efforts are making a distinction? As we’ll see, the reply could be no.
We’ll get to that reply by taking a look at the knowledge underlying the NFL’s persistently optimistic interpretation of concussion counts and present how these numbers parallel the year-to-year fluctuations in different accidents. We’ll additionally have a look at long-term traits—latest concussion tallies surpass these of previous many years—and focus on why there are causes to query the accuracy of the underlying knowledge. With all these nuances in thoughts, we’ll discover whether or not the NFL is likely to be mistaking random variation for trigger and impact after which justifying coverage adjustments utilizing this unconvincing proof.
Heads I win, tails I additionally win
According to its officers, the NFL has made continuous progress in its struggle in opposition to concussions in the previous decade, basing that declare on the variety of concussions reported. In 2014, the league introduced a formidable 25 p.c lower in concussions—a development that NFL SVP of Health and Safety Jeff Miller described as “heading in the right direction.” That four-year low of 202 concussions (mixed preseason and common season) was attributed to enhancements in tradition and rule adjustments. Following this, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell declared that “Football has never been safer than it is right now” in the league’s 2015 NFL Health and Safety Report. Miller delivered an identical message following the 2018 season (214 concussions), saying that the NFL was “pleased with the progress on concussion reduction.” Progress was cited but once more in 2020.
If issues enhance that repeatedly, you’d count on that concussion counts can be on a downward development. They’re not. And paradoxically, you get related statements about improved participant security in years the place the concussion rely will increase.
The NFL has tried to enhance concussion consciousness in athletes, medical suppliers, and administration (which is an efficient factor), so it attributes the next concussion rely to proof that concussions are actually acknowledged extra usually by elevated screening and self-reporting. This was a significant speaking level when common season sport concussions elevated by 58 p.c in 2015. When concussions jumped 13.5 p.c in 2017, the NFL emphasised this was “amid a rise in self-reporting of symptoms.” In response to an 18 p.c improve in concussions in 2022 (213 complete), NFL Chief Medical Officer Dr. Allen Sills defined how a broader definition of “concussion” was the root of the rise.
Even when the league acknowledged {that a} 5 p.c improve in 2019 (224 concussions) was “statistically similar” to the earlier 12 months (214 concussions), that was stated to have served as validation of its security efforts.
Could or not it’s that gamers have gotten higher about recognizing and reporting signs, so extra concussions are being recognized? Or are there years the place there are merely extra concussed gamers and/or gamers experiencing extra extreme signs? We don’t know—and in equity, the NFL mentions each as a chance. Yet the league touts a message of improved participant security no matter which path the numbers go. If concussions lower, it’s as a result of the new security measures are working (quite than under-reporting). If concussions improve, it’s as a result of everyone seems to be extra astute in recognizing concussions (quite than extra accidents). Any change in numbers interprets to a “safer game”—which looks like a textbook case of affirmation bias.