“Horrific crimes. Murders. Gang attacks against our police. Child sex crimes. And the brutal killing of a nursing student on her college campus.”
That’s the type of rhetoric Republican convention-goers had been uncovered to in Milwaukee on Tuesday, after an ominous video — narrated with a deep voice that sounded prefer it got here out of a 2000s motion film trailer — depicted a dystopian model of Joe Biden’s America.
The theme of the Republican National Convention’s second night time was “Make America Safe Again,” and the roster of audio system repeatedly criticized Biden’s report on crime and immigration: Randy Sutton, a retired police officer, mentioned there was a “war on cops.” Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird mentioned that Biden treats “police like criminals, and criminals like victims.” Texas Sen. Ted Cruz declared that “your family is less safe, your children are less safe, the country is less safe,” as a results of Biden’s presidency.
But the Republican audio system’ rhetoric on crime spiraling uncontrolled was out of contact with actuality.
While there was certainly a rise in crime through the pandemic, current knowledge has proven that crime is declining nationwide. According to the FBI, homicide is down 26 % and robberies have declined by 18 % within the first three months of 2024 in comparison with the identical time final yr. That didn’t cease Republican audio system all through the night time from singling out incidents of heinous crimes and drug overdoses to conjure up a picture of lawlessness and dysfunction.
So why are Republicans plowing forward with their “Make America Safe Again” messaging regardless of knowledge that exhibits America is already getting safer? The reply is straightforward: Most Americans imagine that crime is getting worse, so it’s not a notably robust message to promote.
The conference made clear that Republicans are operating one more law-and-order marketing campaign, drumming up worry amongst voters by leaning on racist tropes and canine whistles. Their insistence that cities are crime-ridden, although, will not be solely a means to spark worry in voters; it’s additionally a window into how they’ll method public security laws if Donald Trump wins in November.
What the Republican method to crime appears like
Since the pandemic, the conservative backlash to progressive legal justice reforms, together with reducing penalties, has grown. While some Democrats have joined Republicans in passing tough-on-crime laws previously yr, Republicans have been harsher and extra excessive of their response to the 2020 crime spike.
Louisiana, for instance, handed a slew of punitive measures that included harsher penalties for numerous offenses and lowered parole eligibility, and even allowed for 17-year-olds to be tried as adults as an alternative of within the juvenile justice system.
Republican politicians have additionally been outspoken critics of progressive district attorneys who’ve taken a softer method to imposing petty crimes. Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for a second Trump administration, calls on the Department of Justice to compel native DAs to implement the legal guidelines that the federal authorities sees match — together with excessive right-wing insurance policies — relatively than go away that as much as native prosecutors, as has lengthy been customary.
A Trump win would embolden Republicans to proceed undoing the legal justice reform that, in current many years, lowered the jail inhabitants and lowered penalties for petty crimes. The consequence could possibly be a renewed and additional entrenched period of mass incarceration.
The GOP’s deal with crime may not work
Surveys have proven that Americans at all times are likely to assume crime charges are getting worse, even when the other is true, however there’s a restrict to how profitable law-and-order campaigns will be. Recently, the Republican messaging hasn’t essentially paid electoral dividends.
According to the Vera Institute of Justice, for instance, the 2022 midterms confirmed that Republicans’ fear-mongering rhetoric on crime didn’t appear to resonate with voters. Republicans spent tens of millions of {dollars} on marketing campaign adverts specializing in crime and public security, however in line with exit surveys commissioned by Vera Action, the lobbying group aligned with the Vera Institute of Justice, whereas voters had been involved about crime, they didn’t essentially imagine in additional punitive insurance policies.
Still, there’s a purpose Republicans are focusing their rhetoric on crime: Democrats have been on the defensive on the problem, even if the info is of their favor.
Instead of constant to champion progressive adjustments to the legal justice system, many Democrats have reversed course and pushed for harsher enforcement, fearing voter sentiment round crime. That was the case in New York, for instance, the place the Democratic governor despatched the National Guard to patrol the subway, and in Oregon, the place lawmakers recriminalized medication after voters in 2020 decriminalized them.
If the second night time of the Republican conference was any indication, it’s that, regardless of falling crime charges, the GOP’s outdated law-and-order marketing campaign playbook isn’t prone to go away anytime quickly.